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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.