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Initially, the former US president appeared to take a firm stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "serious repercussions" in August in case Russia's president persisted hindering truce talks, Trump ultimately imposed considerable restrictions on the Russian two largest energy firms, these major energy companies. This decision significantly affected Putin's capacity to support his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, via his latest 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly created by both nations' representatives excluding Ukraine's or EU involvement, he has clearly gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's plan would essentially reward Putin for invading Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in jeopardy. Despite ringing declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", significant aspects of the plan in reality weaken that essential sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business background, the former president persists to view the war as a simple land disagreement, like ceding Russia a section of Ukraine's soil will appease the president. But, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a damaged swath of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's clear desire to weaken it so it no longer serves as an appealing standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that his deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Surrenders

Although freezing in place the currently split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would force the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with area that its troops have been unable to capture in over a decade of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian defenses dangerously weakened.

This region is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a key barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, providing Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv in case he later choose to resume the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a move that would facilitate additional conflict more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its military from their present large number troops to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no such restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected administration as extremists, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any extremist ideology and actions must be condemned and banned." As if to highlight this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, Trump sets no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by allowing votes in Russia.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation promise not to "attack other states" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has broken comparable agreements in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to honor the nation's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a handback of seized land in the region to the government – for what reason should we trust Russia now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external protection assurances. Although the proposal warns of a "decisive coordinated military response" if Russia restart its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars include fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude member states from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the reassurance force, presumptively led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Putin from rebuilding his reduced forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

An additional parallel deal reportedly would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. Yet different from a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best defense against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, including Trump, to act through arms to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not