Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
