A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
